Having a bet on the Grand National? This is worth a read...

[keith lard]

Taken from another forum...


4.15 JOHN SMITH’S GRAND NATIONAL


There are stats galore of course but here are the five strongest I like to cut the field to a more manageable shortlist before then having a proper good look to assist into hopefully unlocking the identity of this year’s winner.


(1) Overlook any horse carrying over 11st 5lbs for win-only purposes. No horse has managed this feat since Red Rum in 1977 and as many as 98 have tried. I stress win-only purposes as many have been placed of late which suggests that the handicapper’s tinkerings to assist the top weights will come to fruition sooner rather than later. That means I am against the likely favourite, Synchronised, off top weight in his bid to become the first Gold Cup winner to double up since Golden Miller. Ballabriggs, Weird Al, Neptune Collonges and Calgary Bay also carry over 11st 5lbs. That said, I am strong to Ballabriggs to place again and have backed him place only.


(2) Disregard any horse yet to win a race over three miles or more. A basic requirement you would have thought for a contest over 4½ miles and no winner since 1970 had failed to win over at least three miles beforehand. That means I can’t support Tatenen, Quiscover Fontaine and In Compliance. Seabass and Becauseicouldntsee have not won over 3m+ under Rules but have won over 3m in point to points and the latter clearly stays very well having been second in the 4m NH Chase. Seabass’ stamina would concern me a lot more though and Walsh has his doubts he will stay so chose to ride On His Own instead. iH


(3) Dismiss horses too young and too old. Experience counts for so much in the Grand National to the extent that no winner has been aged under eight for 72 years. Furthermore, since 1992, only six of their 40 runners have even completed the course. Six-year-olds have been banned from running as from this season. Therefore stats say I can’t support Organiseconfusion, Tharawaat or the novice, Viking Blond. Also dismiss Hello Bud and Black Apalachi as no horse aged 13 or older has won since 1923 and none have even placed since 1969.


(4) Disregard horses to have not run in the calendar year. Not since the fragile Aldaniti won in 1981 has a winner not had a prep-race in the last seven weeks but a little discretion should be used here of course as I’m not sure another week or so in this day and age would make any difference. It is those that have not run this calendar year I would be more concerned about which brings in State Of Play, West End Rocker and Arbor Supreme.
If you want to be play it by the book of no more than seven weeks then that means that Neptune Collonges (56 days), Calgary Bay (77), Chicago Grey (56), Tatenen (56), On His Own (79), Treacle (62), Always Right (56), Cappa Bleu (56), Quiscover Fontaine (77), Giles Cross (56), Vic Venturi (62) and Viking Blond (56) are vulnerable on stats but not by much – eight of them by less than a week so some discretion can be used here.


(5) Strike a line through French-bred and Flat-bred contenders. Just one French-bred winner in 103 years tells a story though it should be stressed that winner was a fairly recent one in Mon Mome and they did not attack the race in the same volume for the first 80 years as they have since but they are still underperforming as far as finding the winner is concerned in the last 20 years. French breds this year are Tatenen, Mon Mome, Quiscover Fontaine, Tharawaat, Swing Bill and Viking Blond. On the subject of breeding, the freak Red Rum apart, Flat breds don’t win the Grand National very often which puts me off Junior, Deep Purple and Postmaster.


Most winners are within striking distance heading out into the second circuit – Ballabriggs being another example last year being prominent throughout. I don’t like obvious hold-up horses so that puts me off Sunnyhillboy who is usually given a hunting/creeping ride. Only four of the last 22 winners were given hunting rides with their jockeys slowly creeping into contention in the final mile having been buried away for the first circuit and a half. Most winners are within striking distance heading out into the second circuit.


Giles Cross won the Grand National Trial at Haydock that has highlighted several National winners since the 1970s but no horse has ever completed the double so he wouldn’t be for me either, especially with the ground not as soft as was being predicted.


Once horses carrying over 11st 5lbs, yet to win over 3m+, aged seven, aged over 12, been off the course since before the New Year, French breds, Flat breds, obvious hold up horses and the Haydock Grand National Trial winner have been overlooked, that cuts the 40 runners down to 17 to start then looking at the positive stats.


As for the best guides, last year’s Grand National is often the best place to start as 5 of the last 10 winners ran in the race 12 months earlier (and 7 of the last 11 winners had experience of the fences before). Last year’s winner, Ballabriggs, is back again and I envisage another huge run and fancy him to place again whilst others that contested last year’s race were State Of Play (4th), The Midnight Club (6th), In Compliance (13th), Hello Bud (p.u), West End Rocker (b.d), Killyglen (fell), Calgary Bay (fell), Arbor Supreme (fell), Becauseicouldntsee (fell) and Vic Venturi (b.d). The handicap chase that has come to the fore in very recent years is the Morson Group Handicap Chase run over an extended 3m3f at Cheltenham’s November Meeting featuring two of the last four winners and was won this season by Galaxy Rock (not entered) but the also-rans to line up here are West End Rocker and Chicago Grey.


Last season’s Irish Grand National has been the best Irish guide featuring four Aintree Grand National winners in the last 13 years. Organisedconfusion (though being a 7-year-old is the big statistical negative with him) won last year’s race and he had the J P McManus-owned trio of Sunnyhillboy (3rd), Quiscover Fontaine (4th) and a certain horse by the name of Synchronised (pulled up) behind.


Mon Mome backers of three years ago will tell you otherwise but this is generally a good race for fancied horses with 16 of the last 21 winners started in the first eight in the betting. At the current time those positions are occupied by Synchronised, Ballabriggs, Junior, West End Rocker, On His Own, Chicago Grey, Cappa Bleu and Shakalakaboomboom. What I would say though is the market can be volatile on the day so this is highly likely to change plus there are more horses than I can ever remember priced up to 33/1 this year so the Handicapper has certainly succeeded in making this a very good puzzle.


Six of the last 13 winners were trained in Ireland from approximately 20% representation and they have big claims again with On His Own, Killyglen, Chicago Grey, Organisedconfusion, Becauseicouldntsee, Treacle, Seabass, Quiscover Fontaine, The Midnight Club, Alfa Beat, Rare Bob, Black Apalachi, Vic Venturi and In Compliance going for them.


SHORT LIST


KILLYGLEN


THE MIDNIGHT CLUB


RARE BOB


PLANET OF SOUND


ACCORDING TO PETE


CONCLUSION


Seventeen horses survived the negative trends listed as far as win-only bets are concerned (though I am very keen on Ballabriggs place only) so, to cut that down further, I reluctantly choose to overlook those that had been off the course between seven weeks and the start of the year (it is a pattern after all) or otherwise the short list would be anything but. That leaves ten 10 horses as I have decided to take out Seabass on potential stamina grounds and then down to eight as Neptune Equester will do well to win being the only horse out of the handicap, and by as much as 5lbs. Given that I also think eight-year-olds struggle (just one win in 18 years) that means that Shakalalakaboom and Alfa Beat fall at the last hurdle. As a hard race at the Cheltenham Festival can leave it mark, then that is enough for me to pass on the Kim Muir second, Becauseicouldntsee, who also fell at only the second fence last year plus Midnight Haze would have also known he had been in a race when fifth in the Festival cross country race not beaten far. Onto the five shortlisted horses and KILLYGLEN gets the vote also being Irish-trained and having run so well in this race last year when falling four out when in second place. He also likes to race up with the pace which I like for this race and has been in fine form this season and loves left-handed, flat tracks. THE MIDNIGHT CLUB also represents the Irish and has course experience having finished sixth last year. I am not 100% sure he took to it but at least he has experience of this test on his side this time and his yard have won the race before. RARE BOB had a look at these fences in Becher Chase so knows what to expect this time. Forget that run as he ground was heavy and he likes this better surface plus his yard have trained two winners over these fences recently and had a Grand National second two years ago. He would probably have been second in the 3m handicap chase on this card last year which has been a decent pointer in recent years and he too races prominently. PLANET OF SOUND is a former Grade 1 winner that was second in the Hennessy (a good guide down the years) and then third in another top class handicap at Kempton. He does like galloping, flat tracks and the yard’s Hennessy winner, What’s Up Boys, was just touched off in this race. He is my idea of the best of the Brits for an each-way pop at a working man’s price if the rain stays away. If it gets softer then ACCORDING TO PETE would take over than mantle. It is so hard not to like this battler who wears his heart on his sleeve and likes to race prominently which is always a big positive for this race.